BROWNSVILLE — All eyes are on a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf which the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday said has a 70% likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming within the next five days.

Barry Goldsmith, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said this means a tropical depression would form at a minimum.

“The increasing likelihood is based on the following factors: disturbance with high atmospheric moisture content already exists, low wind shear is present and high oceanic heat content exists,” Goldsmith states.

For now, it is unknown where any center will form and actually track and where the worst impacts will be, he said.

In the meantime, weather systems will affect the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas over the next week. There’s a possibility for late morning through early evening showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Slow moving cells or clusters could produce localized urban flooding each day.

There’s a 70% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and a 40% chance of thunderstorms Thursday night.

The rain chances continue on Friday with a 60% chance of thunderstorms during the day and a 30% chance of thunderstorms during the evening.

Goldsmith states that no matter what forms in the southwestern Gulf, dangerous boating conditions and another round of seawater flooding at the beach is likely, which could occur as early as late Saturday and peak Monday through Tuesday or longer.

He added the lack of strong steering currents early next week could create a significant flood and beach erosion event on South Padre Island.