McALLEN — The Upper Rio Grande Valley’s real estate boom may not be over yet, but it's definitely on the downswing.

Assuming there is no real estate miracle in the final days of this year, Hidalgo County is set to record its first year-to-year home sales decline since 1999. In fact, home sales are down almost 10 percent from last year, according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

Real estate agents and experts across the Valley are saying the market doesn’t have the same excitement that accompanied the recent boom years of home selling.

“We’re all busy but it’s not quite as busy as it was this time last year,” said Edna

Taylor, a real estate broker and owner of Real Estate Service in McAllen. “I’ve seen a significant difference.”

Through November, Hidalgo County has logged 2,100 home sales in 2007, 229 less than the same period in 2006. However, average home prices, $140,050 in November, are still near the record high set during the peak of the real estate boom in mid-2006, Texas A&M’s figures show.

“I know that things have slowed down a lot,” said Sandra Santos, president of the

Greater McAllen Association of Realtors and an agent at Prudential Real Estate. “But I don’t see a great reduction in prices yet, because sometimes it takes a while for it to catch up to us last.”

Nationwide, the declines are already eating up real estate markets. For November, home sales across the country are down 9 percent from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Prices of homes in the Valley could fall as the national downtrend hits the area, Santos said.

However, the local real estate market only looks dim when compared to bumper years in 2005 and 2006.

Overall, 2007 will still chalk up as Hidalgo County’s third-best home selling year, according to Texas A&M’s research.

Many real estate agents cite other economic indicators like lower unemployment rates and bank deposits as evidence the region is still relishing a strong economy.

“No one is shutting down business or losing their jobs,” Taylor said. “If all those things are good, it’s a foundation for a strong real estate market.”

And while many admit homes aren’t as hot as they once were, many say it’s still easy to sell a house here.

Mike Blum, a broker and owner of NAI Rio Grande Valley, said he listed his home with an agent earlier this month and had little trouble selling it.

“We had a lot of people come look at it,” he said. “You just have to make sure the price is right.”

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Kyle Arnold covers business, the economy and general assignments for The Monitor. You can reach him at (956) 683-4410.