Like cheaper gas? Get used to it

McALLEN - The plummeting pump prices of the last few weeks have been fun, haven't they?

Crude oil prices fell to $70.89 per barrel Tuesday, almost half of what they were July 11.

That decline has translated to lower prices at the pump. The cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, which neared $4 a gallon earlier this summer, was tantalizingly close to the $2 mark Tuesday - and may have dropped below it by the time today's newspaper hits the streets.

Not everyone is thrilled, of course. It's a worrisome drop for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that supplies 40 percent of the world's oil. OPEC officials are expected to cut production to decrease supply and stem the price slide at a meeting Friday in Vienna.

Falling prices also have the potential to further ratchet up the pressure on the already strained Mexican peso, whose value has declined sharply in recent weeks. Oil is Mexico's biggest source of trade revenue.

In the past month the peso has dropped 17.8 percent against the U.S. dollar and has declined against 15 of the 16 most traded currencies - the lone exception being the South African rand.

While predicting how gas prices will react if OPEC slashes production is a dicey endeavor, officials said such a cut likely will not pump up prices.

The current decline in oil prices is spurred by demand, not supply, experts noted.

"I don't think OPEC will cut so much that they'll reverse the price trend and have it jump back up," said Bob Tippee, editor of the Oil and Gas Journal, a Houston-based trade publication. "What OPEC wants to do and what it can probably succeed (in doing) is stopping the rapid decline, but probably not effect a real increase."

OPEC members are often quarrelsome, however, with some countries cheating and producing more than their quotas, Tippee said. The most likely contenders to cheat are Venezuela and Iran, which are facing mounting budget deficits if their oil revenues continue to fall.

That cheating would offset production decreases in other countries.

And demand is expected to continue to drop, putting more pressure on oil producers and refiners to find a price to match consumption.

"A slowdown in the economy leads to a decrease in demand," said Albert Davila, chair of the economics department at the University of Texas Pan-American in Edinburg. "If there's an increase in demand for goods and services, that would lead to an increase in demand for oil."

Still, the falling gas prices are a welcome relief to many consumers, who have had to curb spending because of transportation costs, Davila said.

"High gasoline prices have been a drag on the economy for some time," he said. "(Our students) have to commute long distances to come to classes - high gasoline prices have certainly cut into their wallets."

Earlier this year, Davila said, officials were concerned enrollment could fall due to the high cost of commuting to UTPA. Instead, enrollment ended up increasing.

At the Valero gas station at the corner of Trenton and Jackson roads Tuesday evening, 30-year-old Dennis Zamarron Jr. filled his Mazda CX-7 with unleaded plus-grade gasoline at $2.10 a gallon.

The Pharr native said that while he was happy to see fuel so much cheaper than it had been for months, he is also concerned about the larger implications of such a rapid decline. Cheap gas makes the country less likely to reduce its dependence on oil, he said.

"Why do we have to consume so much?" he said, noting that his midsize SUV, which gets 29 miles per gallon on the highway, was the only non-truck filling up at the station.

"It'll be another reason to stop alternative fuel production," he said the price dip.

Daisy Ortiz, a Pharr resident who routinely commutes to work at the Convergys call center in her city, said the higher gas prices of recent months had impacted how often she hangs out with her friends.

"I can't travel as much or go to concerts," she said. "As long as it keeps going down, it's fine."

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Sean Gaffney covers business, the economy and general assignments for The Monitor. He can be reached at (956) 683-4434.