Sources: Iranian plotters barked up wrong tree trying to enlist cartel

A man accused of plotting to kill Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the U.S. met at least once in Reynosa with an informant posing as a cartel hit man-for-hire, a source outside law enforcement said.

And various U.S. officials have implied that alleged Iranian plotter Manssor Arbabsiar, 56, thought he was meeting with a member of the Zetas drug cartel.

But that scenario would betray a lack of understanding on the part of the conspirator, said a source outside law enforcement who is familiar with Mexican organized crime.

“Reynosa is a stronghold for the Gulf Cartel, so for those men to believe they were meeting with the Zetas there points to a lack of knowledge on their part and the fact that they were blindly set up by American authorities,” the source said.

Furthermore, drug cartels generally avoid blatant criminal activities against prominent figures in the U.S., said George W. Grayson, a government professor for the College of William and Mary and author of Mexico: Narco-Violence and a Failed State?

For that reason, they have avoided linking themselves to Mideast terrorists — at least publicly, he said.

“It’s not that they are choir boys or girls,” Grayson said. “It’s the pragmatic reason that these syndicates have traditionally shunned provocative acts that might precipitate the dispatch of U.S. troops to Mexico.

“In general, they are doing well vis-a-vis the (President Felipe) Calderón administration without risking the animus of Washington.”

If a Mexican group were indeed behind the planned attacks, any terrorism act would have sprung from freelancing rather than a corporate decision made by a capo or his consigliere, Grayson said.