SHIFTING THREAT: Mexican cartels adapting in face of greater resistance from military.

Mexican authorities have scored key victories in recent months in their ongoing campaign against the Tamaulipas-based Gulf Cartel.
An increased military presence in cities along the nation's northern border has yielded numerous arrests of top organization officials and high-profile raids on drug stashes and safe houses.

But there is evidence that despite their successes, the cartel and its paramilitary wing, the Zetas, are adapting. Leaders of both have moved out of once prominent hotspots and may be entering new forms of criminal and legitimate business, say law enforcement officials and analysts.

"When the smoke clears and the military leaves, we may be looking at new types of organizations but they will still be standing," said Howard Campbell, a cultural anthropologist at the University of Texas-El Paso who has studied Mexico's drug trafficking organizations.

Mexican President Felipe Calderón dispatched thousands of troops to Tamaulipas' northern border at the start of this year as part of a nationwide campaign to weed out entrenched drug trafficking organizations.

Despite initial flare-ups in cities such as Reynosa and Rio Bravo - where narco-traffickers battled federal agents in the streets in January - the state's border cities have not seen the systemic violence that has besieged cities farther west such as Ciudád Juarez, across the border from El Paso.

Residents report a new calm has descended on the cities since the arrival of armored vehicles. But Fred Burton, a drug trade specialist with Austin-based private intelligence service Stratfor, suggests the military has merely dispersed the Gulf Cartel's most active cells, not defeated them.

Recent raids near Miguel Alemán and outside Rio Bravo show activity shifting from the former urban hotspots of Reynosa and Matamoros to rural ranches.

There, investigators have discovered huge arsenals of firearms, according to authorities tasked with monitoring drug trafficking activity. One of those stashes - found in February during a raid near Miguel Alemán - was the largest cache of weapons ever seized in Mexico.

And the arrests of top leaders such as Daniel Perez Rojas - detained in Guatemala last week and believed to be second-in-command of the Zetas - suggest they may be moving even farther south, Burton said.

Authorities are still investigating reports that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, the suspected leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, died during a gun battle in the Central American nation last month.

"These organizations tend to hunker down using their safe-haven network," Burton said. "We've seen several high-value targets heading south using their drug distribution routes."

While operating farther afield, the cartels are also beginning to spread into new business territories.

Mention of "Los Zetas" used to be reserved for wide-eyed gossip in popular vacation cities like Cancun and Veracruz. Now, business owners there report members engaging in mob-style shakedowns and extortion rackets, Campbell said.

"They're starting to show up in new areas and looking for new business," he said. "The drugs are no longer enough."
The cartels also appear to be going to new lengths to insist on their resilience despite the military pressure.

People claiming ties to the Zetas have launched a renewed public relations campaign, touting their violent actions in slickly produced YouTube videos and recruiting posters hung in prominent places earlier this week in Laredo and Reynosa.

Authorities have been unable to authenticate whether the signs - promising new recruits money, food and family protection - actually come from the Zetas. But the military has taken them down almost as quickly as they were put up.

Calderón's campaign has been hailed as the most serious government effort in years to take on the cartels. To maintain the fight, however, he will need continued resources and a will to combat the system of public corruption that has enabled cartel activity.

Recent efforts have put local police under military spotlight. Just this past week, on Thursday, Reynosa police Chief Juan José Muñiz was arrested for allegedly protecting organized criminals.

After years of following drug traffickers, Campbell is not convinced the fight against public corruption is a battle Calderón can win.
"The government will make certain progress in certain areas," he said. "But the cartels will regroup and reorganize and continue on."
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Jeremy Roebuck covers courts and general assignments for The Monitor. You can reach him at (956) 683-4437.