The latest Hurricane Ike forecast (1 p.m.)

September 10, 2008 - 7:01 AM
The Monitor

NOAA
Hurricane Ike's forecast path as of 1 p.m. Saturday

1 p.m. Saturday: Ike downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

10 a.m. Saturday: Ike is slowly weakening as it begins to move further inland.

8 a.m. Saturday: Hurricane Ike's eye is currently located northeast of Conroe, TX, and is continuing to move inland.

2 a.m. Saturday: The eye of Hurricane Ike has begun to cross onto shore.

12 a.m. Saturday: The eye of the hurricane is nearly to Galveston. Landfall is expected shortly. Currently, Hurricane Ike is moving northwest at 12 mph with sustained winds of 110 mph.

10 p.m. Friday: Hurricane force gusts are being reported on Galveston island as Hurricane Ike makes its way closer to shore.

7 p.m. Friday: Hurricane Ike's center is about 100 miles southeast of Galveston. The storm has begun to strengthen slowly as it approaches Galveston, which is feeling the effects of the storm.

4 p.m. Friday: Hurricane Ike's center is located about 135 miles southeast of Galveston and about 240 miles east of Corpus Christi.

The hurricane has been moving northwest and is expected to move in this direction throughout the day with a turn toward the north expected on Saturday. Ike's center will be very near the upper Texas coast by late Friday or early Saturday.

Ike remains a category 2 hurricane, with 105 mph winds, but could reach the coast as a category 3.

1 p.m. Friday: The Hurricane Warning for areas south of Port Aransas has been lessened to a Tropical Storm warning. Hurricane conditions are expected to reaching the warning area later today.

10 a.m. Friday: Hurricane conditions expected to reach the upper Texas coast later today, with 100 mph winds expected by midnight.

The center of Hurricane Ike will be near the upper coast by late today or early Saturday, but due to its massive size, weather will soon start to deteriorate along the coast.

Ike, currently 195 miles southeast of Galveston, is moving toward the coast at 12 mph.

7 a.m. Friday: The National Weather Service is describing Ike as a "large and dangerous hurricane," headed toward the Upper Texas coast.

The storm should hit the Texas coast around 2 a.m. Saturday.

Hurricane warnings are in effect from Morgan City, La., to Baffin Bay, Texas. The NWS expects Ike to take a turn to the northwest later today, then another turn north on Saturday.

The service is also warning of storm surge of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in some areas.

Although it does not appear South Texas will receive much rain because of Ike, meteorologists expect 5 to 10 inches in eastern Texas and 15 inches in some areas.

10 p.m. Thursday: Ike has shifted toward northeast Texas, now showing more of a chance to hit Louisiana.

4 p.m. Thursday: Ike is still taking his time, moving west-northwest at 10 mph. When it makes landfall early Saturday, the storm is expected to dump 5 to 10 inches of rain along the Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana.

 

1 p.m. Thursday: Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm but gaining power, is still churning in the Gulf of Mexico east of Corpus Christi, heading west-northwest at 10 mph.

According to the Brownsville office of the National Weather service, the hurricane's northward path makes it increasingly unlikely that it will hit the Rio Grande Valley.

"Outer fringe" and thunderstorms may still make their way here, with "locally torrential" rains and 40 mph winds.

However, South Padre Island is likely to see storm surge from the storm, causing coastal floording on Friday.

"The center of Ike should be very near the Texas coast by late Friday. However, because Ike is a very large tropical cyclone, weather will deteriorate along the coastline long before the center reaches the coast," the weather service warned.

The National Weather Service is still issuing a hurricane watch for the Texas coast as far south as Port Mansfield.

 

 

7 a.m. Thursday: Hurricane Ike, still a Category 2 hurricane, continues to move across the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coastline.

The storm's center continues to strengthen, with its strongest sustained winds estimated at 100 mph.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect Ike to strengthen as the rest of the hurricane gradually moves toward the Gulf Coast.

Ike is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane -- with 126 mph winds -- by the time it makes landfall late Friday into Saturday.

Ike continues to move toward the west-northwest at 8 mph. Most forecast models indicate that a high pressure ridge to the north will expand over the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the storm to continue on a general west-northwest track during the next three days.

After the storm makes landfall on Saturday, it is expected to weaken and move to the north.

  • Below is the latest forecast discussion regarding Hurricane Ike's development from NOAA.
    The illustration is Ike's latest forecast path.The next update is expected at
    1 p.m. Central time. Check back to www.themonitor.com for updates throughout the day.

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES...
930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.5 N...88.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.