Report warns of Mexican government collapse

Growing drug cartel violence in Mexico could pose a homeland security problem of "immense proportions" for the United States, according to a U.S. military report published late last year.

The Norfolk, Va.-based U.S. Joint Forces Command warns that in a worst-case scenario the Mexican government could face a "rapid and sudden collapse" in its 2008 Joint Operating Environment, an annual evaluation of future national security trends issued each November.

"Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone," the document states.

For years, the Mexican government, politicians, police and judicial infrastructure have endured "sustained assault and pressure" by gangs and cartels.

"How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state," the report reads.

But despite the warning the document dedicates less than 150 words to the situation in Mexico and does not delve into details on how a government failure might occur or what effect it might have on the United States.

"Predictions about the future are always risky," U.S. Marine Corps. Gen. J.N. Matthis cautioned in a forward to the analysis.

A spokesman from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Rio Grande Valley sector declined to comment on the report, saying its details and implications have not been conveyed to his office.

The Mexican consulate in McAllen also refused to immediately discuss the document.

But November's report is not the first time the U.S. federal government has expressed concern over the implications of Mexico's growing cartel violence.

Earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security acknowledged it had developed a contingency plan to send a "surge" of civilian and possibly military law enforcement to the border should violence spilled over from Mexico.

That revelation drew the ire of Rio Grande Valley law enforcement officials, who said they had been kept in the dark about the plan.
Joseph Olmeda, outgoing president of the Reynosa Maquiladora Association, said cartel violence continues to have an affect on international business. His line of work requires him to constantly reassure foreign investors about the safety of Mexico and Reynosa, he said.

The Mexican government has taken strides to alleviate safety concerns for foreigners, such as the implementation of "maquila police" - state police officers who specifically work with the factories.

And Olmeda cited the addition of extra military battalions to Reynosa in the past several months as another positive step.

"They're trying to clean up to the best of their ability, to try to prevent these things from happening," he said.

The U.S. Joint Forces Command also cited Pakistan as a country that could experience a government collapse.

The command is one of nine Department of Defense combat commands. It oversees nearly 1.2 million service members, civilians and contractors.
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Ryan Holeywell covers McAllen, PSJA, the Mid-Valley and general assignments for The Monitor. He can be reached at (956) 683-4446.