Tamaulipas drug violence likely to continue escalation

BROWNSVILLE — Experts agree that the drug war along the northern border of Tamaulipas will continue to escalate in the near future despite the recent slaying of one of the heads of the Gulf Cartel.

On Nov. 5, the residents of Matamoros were rocked by a day of firefights that left more than 100 dead and scores injured. After the dust settled, the Mexican navy announced they had killed Antonio Ezequiel “Tony Tormenta” Cardenas Guillen, a man they claimed was the head of the Gulf Cartel and one of the most wanted men in both Mexico and the U.S.

The threats of violence that spread throughout the state, have started a continuous de-population of the northern states in Mexico as residents flee to what they perceive to be safer areas, George Grayson, author of “Mexico: Narco-Violence and a Failed State,” said Friday.

According to Grayson, those who have financial means and can get legal documents to be in the U.S. migrate north, while those who cannot, are moving to southern states, like Queretaro and San Luis Potosi.

The migration will continue as the violence between the Zetas and the Gulf Cartel continues to escalate.

“Tony Tormenta”

Cardenas Guillen is the brother of former Gulf Cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen who was arrested in 2003 and is serving a 25-year sentence in the U.S. for drug charges.

On the days following the announcement, the Zetas, a rival criminal organization, announced they were going to make a move for Matamoros and kill all whom stood in their way after they hung several banners in various cities across Tamaulipas. Several bomb threats and firefights followed leaving residents on both sides of the border in a state of panic.

While Mexican authorities reported that Cardenas Guillen was the head of the Gulf Cartel, Grayson differs, stating that Jorge Eduardo “El Coss” Costilla has been the true operational head of the organization since the fall of Osiel. Ezequiel was considered one of the leaders who commanded respect but suffered some marginalization due to a nasty drug habit.

“He (Ezequiel) had many loyalists by his side from the days of his brother’s leadership who regarded him with great respect,” Grayson said. “He was by no means in the same league as Osiel, but the family ties gave him a cache and great respect if he could keep his wits about him.”

According to an intelligence analysis by Grupo Savant, a private intelligence service which is led by Gary J. Hale, a former intelligence operative with 38 years of experience, the demise of Ezequiel has emboldened the Zetas to push harder toward territorial dominance and likely given them an edge in their fight against the Gulf Cartel.

Next plaza boss?

According to Grayson, the demise of Ezequiel, while a heavy blow to the morale of his group, will not have too much of an effect to the day-to-day operations of the Gulf Cartel.

“‘El Coss’ will play a more influential role and there are others in the pecking order who can emerge,” Grayson said.

The author stated that there is a second tier of leaders, or lieutenants, who are ready to step up to the plate and take control of the Matamoros plaza if it has not already happened.

Some of the Gulf Cartel lieutenants mentioned by Grayson include Samuel “El Metro 3” Flores Borrego, “El R1,” “El Comandante Gamma” and “El Comandante Sierra.”

Also, Costilla played an integral role in creating the troika of the Gulf Cartel, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Familia Michoacana which are fighting the Zetas, Grayson said.

Zetas

According to Grayson, the Zetas seemed to be on the loosing side against the cartels during the early stages of the conflict. However, the group seems to have recuperated and are rapidly recruiting new members in Guatemala, which he refers to as a failed state.

The recruiting methods, propensity to violence and rule by fear have helped the organization grow and allow them to face the cartels head on, he said. The Zetas are not only involved in drug trafficking but also extortion, kidnapping, murder for hire and scores of other criminal activities, Grayson said.

According to Grupo Savant, the Zetas have benefited from the death of Ezequiel and the Mexican authorities’ operations against the Familia Michoacana and the Sinaloa Cartel. The shift could possibly help them become the dominant criminal organization in Mexico.

If the Zetas are able to establish themselves as the dominant criminal organization, Grayson said that it could possibly open a door for the Mexican government. If the heads of the Zetas, Heriberto “El Lazca” Lazcano and Miguel Anguel “El 40” Treviño, were captured or killed, the Mexican government could then try to negotiate with the cartels to minimize their effect on society much like it had been done during the reign of the PRI party in Mexico, Grayson said.

In a previous interview, Grayson stated that the totalitarian government of the PRI turned a blind eye to drug cartels as long as they followed as set of rules and kept violence away from the public. If the cartels fell out of line, the PRI would come down on them, a practice that ended with the democratic government of the PAN who would not negotiate and at the time did not have the totalitarian power to quash the cartels that fell out of line.